What will a post-coronavirus commute be like when New Jersey reopens? Nothing like the traffic and transit crowding we saw before the pandemic, experts said.
Commuting, transit agencies and highway traffic will be affected by how and where employees work, with those continuing to work from home being the biggest game changer, experts told NJ Advance Media.
COVID-19 non-essential worker restrictions increased the number of employees working remotely to 60% of the workforce, said Bill Castellano, a professor in the Rutgers University School of Management and Labor Relations and a former Wall Street human resources executive.
Castellano expects some of those work-from-home orders will remain even when travel restrictions are lifted, while other companies will experiment with staggering work hours or work weeks, he said. The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey already tried that, rotating office hours where one-third of staff is in-office at any given time while the other two-thirds work from home.
“I have to believe the remote number will stay high…not as high as 60%,” Castellano said.
Businesses also may downsize offices, now that they’ve seen employees can work from home and be productive, said Dan Geltrude, financial expert and founding partner of Geltrude & Company of Nutley.
“We’re a CPA firm and able to work remotely and efficiently. Now I only need 50% of my office space,” he said. “Businesses will look to downsize. I think this is a permanent change.”
All those factors have the potential to change the commute by reducing traditional highway traffic and transit ridership, as well as potentially stretching traditional commuting times beyond “rush hours.”
“If a high level of people work remotely ... (traffic and ridership) will never be at rate it was when we entered the pandemic. It will be a long-lasting outcome.”
Those who can’t work from home face personal decisions about the safest and best way to commute, said Sheldon Jacobson, University of Illinois professor of Computer Science, Math and Medicine.
“Mass transit is focused on getting large numbers from one place to another (and) on efficiency, safety and economy. It hasn’t had a public health component,” he said. “This is a new criteria. They haven’t designed buses, light rail or subways for social distancing.”
In China and New Zealand, which are generally months ahead of the U.S. in their coronavirus recoveries, commuters returning to work are driving and avoiding mass transit.
“I think people will go back to driving because it makes them feel more secure,” said Kevin Corbett, NJ Transit CEO and president. “The biggest challenge for transit systems is getting people back. We have to make them feel comfortable and do what makes them feel safe.”
While there’s always the chance some commuters will instinctually return to transit after re-engaging with rush-hour traffic, high daily tolls and parking costs, transit systems still face an uphill battle convincing riders that trains and buses are sanitized enough for them to feel safe.
“Everyone will have a role, riders and transit systems,” said Dr, Judith Lightfoot, Vice Chair, Rowan University Department of Medicine and Chief of Infectious Diseases. “Until we get this pandemic under control, it will change what we expect out of trains, buses, airlines and cruises.”
Rider expectations are buses and trains should look and smell clean when they board, she said. But commuters will have to continue social distancing, as well as wearing protective gear (gloves and masks) and avoid eating and drinking on board, she said.
Riders’ expectations also need to be realistic in terms of how often buses and trains can be cleansed, once the commuting day starts.
“We can only ask they be cleaned once a day,” Lightfoot said.
Transit systems have two key tasks to make riders feel safe, Jacobson said. The first is providing personal space: closing every second seat, making sure people aren’t facing and breathing on each other and having passengers enter by one door and exit by another, he said.
“The other is the perception of safety. They won’t see the workers cleaning, this is where mass transit agencies have to communicate a massive safety campaign,” Jacobson said.
Don’t be surprised to see commuters cleaning their seating area with their own disinfectant wipes, Lightfoot said. Some riders already did this and posted photos of the results on social media, to prompt agencies to do better.
Transit agencies are turning to each other for ideas as ridership slowly upticks.
“What we do, we want to do based on best guidance,” Corbett said. “We’re working with unions and the American Public Transit Association about what is best policy."
Social distancing and providing service to accommodate workers with staggered hours will also be challenges. Corbett said transit agencies are looking strategies to adjust service to meet those needs.
Some commuters are bypassing transit by bicycling or walking, experts said. Jacobson said bike ownership will surge among people who live within five miles of their work place.
“This is an uncharted area, There is not a one size fits all solution,” Jacobson said. “It will be community based and an individual choice of what to do.”
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