Organized labor is in no hurry to back a 2020 Democrat.
There are several reasons, including the bulky field of candidates, many of whom have long records supporting unions. They want to back somebody with a strong, or at least decent chance, of beating President Trump in fall 2020. The June 2018 Janus v. AFSCME decision, which ended compelled union dues for public employees, also plays into the slower-than-usual approach.
“I think it’s pretty clear to those in the labor movement that defeating Trump is the most important thing. Jumping into a messy primary can be a waste of resources,” said Rebecca Kolins Givan, an associate professor in the Rutgers School of Management and Labor Relations. “They’ve learned that early endorsements aren’t the smartest path to advance policy interests and are instead focusing specifically on policies and finding candidates who are behind those policies.” That includes a federal $15 minimum wage and bills like “card check” proposals, which critics say would eliminate secret ballots in union elections.
Democratic presidential candidates who tout their pro-union credentials could be hurt by lack of union endorsements. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders has been aggressively courting the union vote. But so far, only one candidate has received the backing of organized labor: former Vice President Joe Biden. Shortly after he announced in April, the International Association of Firefighters backed the former vice president, in a move labor experts say was more of a top-down, leadership-based decision based on the union’s close relationship with the candidate.
The consequences of union leadership’s decision to back the more establishment candidate in 2016 caused turmoil among the ranks. A local organizer who works with the Carpenters International in Ohio told the Washington Examiner that he had a hard time explaining to his members the union’s decision to back eventual Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton over Sanders.
“There was absolutely tension, no question. Many of them ended up voting for Trump. All we can do is try to tell them what’s in their best interests,” said the former Sanders staffer.
Ultimately, 43% of union households voted for Trump in 2016, the highest levels a Republican received since President Ronald Reagan. Only 51% of union households voted for Clinton, meaning 6% voted third party: a margin that could have been decisive in swing states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
In response, many unions have decided to take a step back during the 2020 Democratic primary. The North American Building Trades Unions, which endorsed Hillary Clinton in 2016, has formally announced it would not play in the upcoming presidential primary.
The American Federation of Teachers, which endorsed Clinton in July 2015 — and generated outrage among some of its members — completely changed its endorsement process. According to the union’s new policies, there remains a distinct chance that it won’t unveil any endorsements at all.
As of right now, a spokesman for the AFT told the Washington Examiner, the organization isn’t close to making any decisions.
Other organizations like the Communications Workers of America, which endorsed Sanders in 2016, told the Washington Examiner that it doesn’t even know if it will get involved in the primary process this time around.
Added to concerns that unpopular endorsements could alienate members is the Janus Supreme Court decision. The ruling allowed individuals in the public sector not to pay union dues even if they weren’t members. Any dissatisfaction with an endorsement could provide more incentives for employees to leave the union or not pay their dues.
“Janus has forced unions to be more responsible to their members. They’re not taking financial support for granted anymore,” said Steve Early, a labor organizer and co-founder of the 2016 group Labor for Bernie. “Endorsements have usually been decided in a top-down fashion, they haven’t been democratic in who they endorse. The unions that endorsed Hillary took a lot of flack. Now they’re being more cautious.”
One union particularly vulnerable post-Janus is the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, which endorsed Clinton in October 2015. Following Janus, the AFSCME lost 98% of its fee payers.
Earlier this month, the president of the AFSCME told the Washington Examiner that it made a mistake endorsing Clinton too early in the 2016 Democratic primary.
“I mean let’s face it, even I’m saying it, in ’16 there was a lot of frustration,” AFSCME President Lee Saunders said.
